Guess who won Rock-Paper-Scissors.
The GBT - The Good, The Bad and The Telling sandwich, where The Bad is nice and lean and the The Telling is ripe.
RAYS 6, Yankees 1 (boxscore)
THE GOOD: The pitching continues to be a strength for the Rays despite losing so many key arms to injuries. Erasmo Ramirez got the call to fill in as a starter and delivered 5 shutout innings, giving up just 1 hit and 2 walks. The Yankees’ lone run in this game came on a solo home run in the 9th inning. That hit ended a stretch of 26 straight innings without allowing the Yankees an extra-base hit. This game was also the 19th time this season the Rays have allowed 2 runs or fewer, most in MLB…Rene Rivera had maybe his first big hit of the season. To be fair, he has only had 13 other hits this year. But his 3-run home run in the 2nd inning was pretty much a game-winner as the Yankees never really threatened after that…OK, Steven Souza nearly cost the Rays a run in the first when he failed to tag up on Evan Longoria’s fly ball and he got picked off the night before. But man, this guy is fun to watch. He doesn’t really do anything great yet but he does a lot of things really well. He had 2 more doubles last night and made a running catch that Wil Myers would have never made.
THE BAD: none
THE TELLING: The Rays and Sun Sports raised $44,000 for Rays charities on Wednesday night with the in-game auction…Jake McGee was activated after the game with Matt Andriese optioned back to triple-A…The Rays continue to play with 8 relievers and just 3 bats on the bench…Matt Moore is scheduled to throw a simulated game on Monday. We are getting closer!…Alex Cobb had his Tommy John surgery on Thursday and (of course) it was successful because nobody ever reports unsuccessful surgery…The Rays are 4 games over .500 for the first time since 2013. They are now 20-16, just 1.0 game behind the Yankees as they head to Minnesota…The Rays have played 30 games under a roof this season. Tonight will be just the 7th game outside.
THE JUNKYARD DOGS WEBTOPIA…
- The Rays now have the best chance to make the playoffs in the AL East according to PECOTA. [BaseballPro]
- DOWN ON THE FARM [boxscores] The Durham Bulls lost 10-2 with Scott Diamond giving up 6 runs in 4.2 innings. Nick Franklin went 1-3 in his latest rehab game. Taylor Motter stole his 9th base and Hak-Ju Lee added his 8th steal…Daniel Robertson went 3-4 in Montgomery’s 8-1 loss and is now hitting .313…Ryne Stanek tossed 7 shutout innings striking out 9 in Charlotte’s 5-1 win over Clearwater. Marty Gantt and Jake Bauers combined to go 7-10 with 3 doubles…Bowling Green was shutout 11-0.
Chris Archer is perplexed by the small crowds.
Strange that we don’t draw more of a crowd. “12,000” last night. The Yanks usually pull more than that in Tampa, lol. Thx to those who came. — Chris Archer (@ChrisArcher42) May 14, 2015
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10 Comments
I don't understand enough of the PETCO math. What would be the reasoning for the Sox to be third in the East in terms of Playoff odds but first in the East in terms of winning the WS odds?
It seems to be completely objective using their formula but not sure why it works out that way. I could make a better case subjectively by saying the Red Sox or Yankees are more likely to make a major move at the trade deadline. Alternately, I could make a case that their WS odds are better because Vegas wants then that way as they can get much more action from people betting for or against Boston that they can the smaller market Rays.
Basically, they are just simulating the rest of the season thousands of times and seeing how often a team makes the playoffs/wins WS/etc.. So making the playoffs is based on things like rest of the schedule, how players are expected to perform, etc. The problem with the World Series percentages is that once you get to the playoffs things are a little bit more random because there are so few games. In other words, there is a little bit more luck affecting the postseason even in these simulations. So the World Series odds should be fairly close to the playoff odds (in terms of rank), but there is probably more noise and bigger error bars.
The odds could actually be like that for logical reasons.
What it takes to win 3 consecutive playoff series and what it takes to make the playoffs after a 162 game season are different.
Having a strong balanced rotation and deep pen can go a long way to get you to 90 wins.
Having 3 hot starters or 2 elite starters and 3 solid bullpen arms can win short series with lots of days off like the playoffs and can guide you to a WS.
Also recent history tells us the winner of the WC game is as likely a WS team or champ as the team with the best RS record.
Likewise a deep balanced 40 man can lock up a division crown or WC berth.
But 8 healthy dialed in position players with a couple of key bench veteran bats can win short series in October.
Also recently organizations that have been there and done that tend so do it again in crunch time. That could be part of the Sox deal
But realistically the big x factor is health. Tell me which teams will have the least key players on the field and healthy then I will give you the odds.
Cobb hopefully out only 14 months back by July 15th of next year!
Huge set of wins there. I know it is skewed by some of the spot starts, but being 2nd in the league in bullpen innings is playing with fire a bit. Need the top starters to go into the 7th and 8th. Brandon Gomes is only human. He can't be throwing every night.
The beauty of the Rays' relief scenario this year is that they've got quality arms to spare as the season wears on.
McGee hasn't even logged an inning yet, so he's got some innings stored up, theoretically Moore will relieve some bullpen stress, and beyond that they can run a conveyor belt back and forth from Durham with fresh, talented arms moving up and down almost daily if the need arises. Most teams don't have half the bullpen talent in the Bigs as the Rays have in Durham and lower.
Using the Durham roster as R&R from the Rays roster -- Andreise going down for a few days and others will follow.
Just the first time managers can get a little trigger happy with bullpen warm ups and game appearances. And when Moore comes back, I assume he'll be on tight pitch counts too.
All that said, to be 4 games over .500 with that schedule and those injuries is just remarkable and a complete credit to Cash and the coaching staff.
All the bad news with Smyly and Cobb in the last couple weeks... but a 3-game win streak against a good-hitting Yankee team helps wash that away.
This is fun.
Really like Daniel Robertson. Glad to see him doing well with the bat. Helps the Zobrist deal look better with Jaso out. Of course, Ben is out too, isn't he.